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How to tell if the Bubble is about to pop...
In general there are four ways to tell if a stock market bubble is leaking:
- Higher interest rates. High interest rates killed the Japanese
bubble of the 1980s.
- A symbolic, faltering leader. Pan American Airways issued
convertibles at higher and higher coupons on the way out.
Watch the convertibles for companies like Amazon.com.
- Look at the cash-burn rates of companies that are losing
money. How many months are left until a leading company runs
through its cash?
- Watch for insider selling -- or buying. Fortunes have been
made quickly on paper -- we don't want to buy the paper of
the founders. Warren Buffett doesn't sell Berkshire Hathaway.
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