How to tell if the Bubble is about to pop...

In general there are four ways to tell if a stock market bubble is leaking:

  1. Higher interest rates. High interest rates killed the Japanese bubble of the 1980s.

  2. A symbolic, faltering leader. Pan American Airways issued convertibles at higher and higher coupons on the way out. Watch the convertibles for companies like Amazon.com.

  3. Look at the cash-burn rates of companies that are losing money. How many months are left until a leading company runs through its cash?

  4. Watch for insider selling -- or buying. Fortunes have been made quickly on paper -- we don't want to buy the paper of the founders. Warren Buffett doesn't sell Berkshire Hathaway.




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    How to Tell If the Bubble Is About to Pop

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